ECOWAS to send troops to Mali, Guinea-Bissau: what can go wrong?

A bit outside the geographic purview of this blog but notable nonetheless.  

Leaders from West Africa announced they will send “at least 3,000” troops to Mali and Guinea-Bissau after both countries’ governments were overthrown in military coups.

West Africa

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) announced after a summit in the capital of Code d’Ivoire, Abidjan, the troops would also fight secessionists in Mali’s north.

Tuareg insurgents took control of northern Mali shortly after the coup and declared independence for the newly-renamed Azawad.   Nationalist National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) claimed to have liberated the region, but the group is facing competition from Islamists in the region.  Ansar al-Deen and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghrib (AQIM) are exerting power in the region’s main cities in Gao and Timbuktu.  There have been reports both Ansar and AQIM have begun to consolidate power, mostly through the provision of services as return of security instead of the imposition of shariah.  

The Washington Post reported on April 16 one way Ansar was working to gain the support of the local population and attract recruits was by setting up a hotline for emergencies.  The paper reported, 

When bus passengers called the emergency telephone number in Gao a week ago after the attackers attempted to rob their bus, the Islamists came, repelled the attack, and cut the throat of one of the bandits.

The Tuaregs had long been agitating for an independent state and took advantage of the security vacuum opened by the coup to seize control. 

The success of the insurgents in the north caused the military to do a quick turnaround.  Mali’s military recently handed power over to an interim government led by Dioncounda Traore after ECOWAS intervention.  They overthrew the government of Amandou Toumani Toure over accusations his government had not done enough to combat rebellions in the north.

Self-fulfilling prophecy, that one. 

Shortly after, Guinea-Bissau’s military overthrew the government during presidential elections in which the current prime minister, Carlos Gomes Junior, was expected to win.  The armed forces were apprehensive about alleged plans to cut the size of the army.

Guinea-Bisseau’s interim president, prime minister, and army chief-of-staff were arrested by the military.

Guinea-Bissau’s Military Command announced plans to set up a transitional government and plan elections for sometime in 2014, but their proposal was rejected by the international community. 

A spokesman for the Military Command said any international forces would be treated as occupiers. 

Got it all straight?