Ikhwan vs. Felool: Quick thoughts on the Egyptian election results

The results of the first round of voting for the Egyptian presidency point to a runoff between Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi and former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq, a felool, or remnant, of the previous regime.  Both options are unattractive to Egypt's revolutionary youth.  They are stuck between voting for a conservative candidate whose platform is perceived to run counter to their ideals, a member of the former regime--which sucks in and of itself, and not voting at all.  A boycott, however, is a terrible option and would only further marginalize them. 

Morsi supporters.
AP photo

That they find themselves in this situation is largely self-inflicted.  The revolutionary youth and left ran multiple candidates, dividing the vote, rather than rallying behind one candidate.  I said before, half jokingly, they did what liberals do best--bicker and eat each other alive.  Just look at the Democratic party. It's the same thing--such a big tent that it's difficult to unify everyone.  Our repubs are much better at imposing party discipline (at least until the rise of the Tea Partiers, whom them have now embraced), as the felool and Islamist candidates are able to do.  

Graffiti in Cairo depicting Mubarak and SCAF leader Tantawy as the same person, with felool candidates Amr Moussa and Ahmed Shafiq behind them.
Reuters photo

I've spoken to a lot of expat Copts in the US and all of them voted for Shafiq.  It hurts me inside to see how their fear of an Islamist presidency pushes them to embrace figures from the same regime.  A win for Shafiq is really the end of the revolution.  Especially after going to Saudi, I know Egypt will not be like that.  The society is too dynamic, the political sphere too open, vested interests too deep, for Egypt to turn incredibly constricted.  There may be bold-name reforms to symbolize the new government's embrace of shariah--no booze or bikinis, although even that is unlikely.  

It is unlikely the FJP (MB's party) will even pursue such policies.  Their model is more Turkey's AKP, the ruling Islamist party, than Iran's theocratic government or Saudi's monarchy-Wahhabi model.  It's the economy, stupid--they're going to have to deal with Egypt's floundering economy first and foremost.  

Many of the expat and upperclass Egyptian youth rallied behind Mohammed el-Baradei, but he didn't even run.  

The transition was never going to be smooth or quick.  

I hope fear doesn't win the election.