Zawahiri's wife praises women for role in uprisings, predicts an "Islamic Spring"

Al-Qaeda’s media arm, al-Fajr, released a letter from leader Ayman al-Zawahiri’s wife, Umayma, praising women across the region for their leading role in the recent uprisings, as both mothers and caretakers of revolutionaries and as participants and victims of violence. 

Cover of Umayma's letter

“Much of what happened was something we had wished, pleaded, and called for, for decades, but unfortunately, only few had responded,” she wrote.  “But today, the balance has tipped—with the grace of God—and things have changed.”

Umayma wrote she wished he participated in the uprisings and singled out Egyptian women’s courage in the face of regime-sponsored violence.

She noted the political gains made by Islamists, including in Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco, and said the Arab Spring would turn into an “Islamic Spring” and lead to the “liberation of Jerusalem.”

“We will have a new Islamic state based on shariah arbitration, and we will free Palestine and build a state of succession to the prophecy,” she said. 

She asked women to continue wearing the veil at school and work.  “The veil is the identity of the Muslim woman,” she said.  “The West wants to tear off this identity so that the Muslim woman would be without her identity, and then everything else would be trivialized.”

The letter’s authenticity could not be independently verified.

Al-Qaeda’s influence has been largely marginalized after the uprisings that began in late 2010 and resulted in the overthrow of various autocratic governments across the region.  The uprisings, while violent at times, were characterized by nonviolent protests, wide popular support, and the demands that political freedom and social justice be realized. 

In a year, the uprisings were able to do what al-Qaeda had been attempting for decades—the overthrow of “tyrant criminals,” according to Umayma—while rejecting the group’s violent tactics and extremist ideology.  The letter is the latest in a series of attempts by al-Qaeda to capitalize on the uprisings.

Al-Zawahiri became al-Qaeda’s leader after Osama bin Laden was killed by United States Special Forces in Abbottabad, Pakistan last May.  The letter was released shortly after al-Qaeda’s second in command, Abu Yahya al-Libi, was reportedly killed in a drone strike in Pakistan in earlier this week.  

Power struggle in Egypt's ruling class

The NYT had a good piece this morning about the fracturing of the powers that be in Egypt.  As a reader of this blog noted, while SCAF likes to portray itself as all-powerful (and Western media tends to oblige), in reality Egyptian politicians are competing against each other in the newly opened political climate.

Fayza abdul Naga, minister of planning and international cooperation, is leading the charge against foreign-funded democracy organizations. Tensions between Egypt and the United States spiked after various international and local organizations were raided in December 2011.  Forty three individuals have been slapped with travel bans, nineteen of which are Americans.  Washington has urged Cairo in vain to rescind the travel bans.  Various US politicians have threatened to cut US military aid, amounting to $1.3 billion annually, if the situation is not resolved.  

Three Americans have sought refuge at the US embassy in Cairo, including the son of US Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood.  They will be prosecuted for alleged licensing irregularities.  

Politicians and generals have long accused "foreign hands" of being behind the unrest, and this weekend some reiterated the claim in justifying the crackdown on NGOs.

After a visit by General Martin Dempsey, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, SCAF chief Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi publicly urged "the importance of maintaining the established relationships between the US and Egypt, and strengthening them." He also held a cabinet meeting--of which Naga is a member--urging ministers to "strike a balance" in public statements. 

Naga, a long time politician, bureaucrat, and holdovers from Mubarak's rule, blatantly disregarded the SCAF chief's pleas, escalating her rhetoric this weekend.  As a holdover from Mubarak, her position is obviously tenuous as her old colleagues are purged and even brought to trial.  US funding is an issue that just about unites Egyptians (in opposition to the US).  It's emotional, complex, and a bit understandable.  She once called it humiliating.  

Drumming this issue may make her untouchable.  Perhaps even more, as the NYT notes, it may even make her electable.

NYT: Can Egypt Avoid Pakistan's Fate?

At first, the comparison between Pakistan and Egypt made me cringe, but this piece by Michelle Dunne and Shuja Nawaz is worth a read. There are significant differences between the two countries, but the comparison nevertheless is apt.

"One year after the revolution that ousted President Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian military is closing down civil society organizations and trying to manipulate the constitution-writing process to serve its narrow interests. Meanwhile, in Pakistan, where the military has also held sway for more than half the country’s existence — for much of that time, with America’s blessing — a new civil-military crisis is brewing."

With regard to both countries, the United States had the tendency to look the other way as long as the military regimes were willing to help the United States fulfill its regional goals.

The regional changes brought on by the so-called Arab Spring and the vapid anti-Americanism present in Pakistan show the danger of such an approach. Perhaps in the short run the status quo suits United States interest, but the repression, corruption, and economic stagnation of both these countries made the situation unsustainable. It is/was only a matter of time before the simmering pot exploded. I believe the Obama administration is smart enough to realize this. Fingers crossed their better judgement is not subsumed for short-term or domestic political interests.