US drones in Benghazi target of anti-aircraft missiles as investigations show attack preplanned

This sh*t cray.

A protester holds a rifle outside the US consulate in Benghazi on September 11, 2012. 

Benghazi's international airport was closed after militants attacked US drones with "heavy" anti-aircraft fire. The drones were sent to Libya's second city after a September 11 attack on the consulate killed US Ambassador to Libya Chris Stevens and three other embassy staffers.  Libyan officials feared for the safety of civilian aircraft in the area and closed the airspace.

"Two American drones flew over Benghazi last night with the knowledge of Libyan authorities," said Deputy Interior Minister Wais al-Sharif.  "They were visible to the eye and came under attack by anti-aircraft weapons used by armed militias."

In addition to moving drones to Benghazi, the United States sent a special Marines team and destroyers to the coast, building up the position of the US in the event of a future attack.

Preliminary evidence shows the attack was planned in advance.  There is a growing belief that the attack was retribution for the drone strike killing of Mohammed Hassan Qaed, aka Abu Yahya al-Libi, a Libyan killed in Pakistan.

The consulate was looted and an FBI team is yet to arrive to investigate the area due to security concerns. Additionally, important documents are missing from the consulate, including papers with the names of Libyans working with the United States and raising fears for their safety.

US expands intel gathering in Africa: "We should not show to al-Qaeda that we are working with Americans"

The United States expanded intelligence-gathering operations in both sub-Saharan and North Africa by establishing a network of air bases for spying on terrorist groups such as al-Shabaab, Boko Harem, AQIM, and even AQAP in nearby Yemen, as well as tracking down Joseph Kony, the Washington Post reported on Thursday.

According to the WaPo, the bases in Uganda, Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Ethiopia, Djibuti, Kenya, and the Seychelles are used for "small, unarmed turboprop aircraft disguised as private planes" to avoid drawing attention and are "equipped with hidden sensors that can record full-motion video, track infrared heat patters, and vacuum up radio and cellphone signals."

 Djibril Bassole, the foreign minister of Burkina Faso, praises the intelligence gathering operations and security agreement between his country and the United States.

"We need to fight and protect our borders," he said.  "Once they infiltrate your country, it's very, very difficult to get them out.

Some discretion is necessary, he says.

"I cannot provide details but it has been very, very helpful.  This cooperation should be very, very discreet.  We should not show to al-Qaeda that we are working with the Americans."

Oops.  Pretty sure they know now.  

Special Ops forces, working with a sizable contingent of contractors, fly intel missions over the continent.  The Special Ops depend heavily on contractors for much of the work, in effect outsourcing intelligence gathering efforts. The nature of the agreements leaves little accountability or means of renumeration for contractors or their families if things go wrong.

The article is worth reading in full, but one thing I noted about both stories was the mention of plainclothes civilians and military officers in bars and restaurants in the region. The first story placed special emphasis on the presence of service members an contractors in Ouagadougou, the capital of Muslim-majority Burkina Faso. The second placed emphasis on the presence of contractors in Kampala, which was attacked in July 2010 by al-Shabaab.  Over 70 were killed and around 70 were injured when the Somali-based group attacked World Cup screenings.

I'm not sure what the mention of these foreigners in the capitals--especially in the BARS in these countries--added to the stories aside from placing these guys and mzungus (white people) who have nothing to do with the operations at risk of retaliation attacks.  In the case of Ouagadougou, the story even mentioned locals appreciate them for the business they bring.  In the case of Kenya--I mean, al-Shabaab already attacked them. 

Zawahiri's wife praises women for role in uprisings, predicts an "Islamic Spring"

Al-Qaeda’s media arm, al-Fajr, released a letter from leader Ayman al-Zawahiri’s wife, Umayma, praising women across the region for their leading role in the recent uprisings, as both mothers and caretakers of revolutionaries and as participants and victims of violence. 

Cover of Umayma's letter

“Much of what happened was something we had wished, pleaded, and called for, for decades, but unfortunately, only few had responded,” she wrote.  “But today, the balance has tipped—with the grace of God—and things have changed.”

Umayma wrote she wished he participated in the uprisings and singled out Egyptian women’s courage in the face of regime-sponsored violence.

She noted the political gains made by Islamists, including in Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco, and said the Arab Spring would turn into an “Islamic Spring” and lead to the “liberation of Jerusalem.”

“We will have a new Islamic state based on shariah arbitration, and we will free Palestine and build a state of succession to the prophecy,” she said. 

She asked women to continue wearing the veil at school and work.  “The veil is the identity of the Muslim woman,” she said.  “The West wants to tear off this identity so that the Muslim woman would be without her identity, and then everything else would be trivialized.”

The letter’s authenticity could not be independently verified.

Al-Qaeda’s influence has been largely marginalized after the uprisings that began in late 2010 and resulted in the overthrow of various autocratic governments across the region.  The uprisings, while violent at times, were characterized by nonviolent protests, wide popular support, and the demands that political freedom and social justice be realized. 

In a year, the uprisings were able to do what al-Qaeda had been attempting for decades—the overthrow of “tyrant criminals,” according to Umayma—while rejecting the group’s violent tactics and extremist ideology.  The letter is the latest in a series of attempts by al-Qaeda to capitalize on the uprisings.

Al-Zawahiri became al-Qaeda’s leader after Osama bin Laden was killed by United States Special Forces in Abbottabad, Pakistan last May.  The letter was released shortly after al-Qaeda’s second in command, Abu Yahya al-Libi, was reportedly killed in a drone strike in Pakistan in earlier this week.  

McCain and Graham reiterate support for arming Syrian rebels

Senators John McCain and Lindsay Graham, both on the Senate Armed Services Committee, went before the Sunday talk shows this morning to speak out strongly in favor of arming the Syrian rebels. 

"I believe there are ways to get weapons to the opposition without direct United States involvement," said McCain. "...People that are being massacred deserve to have the ability to defend themselves.  So I am not only opposed, but I am in favor of weapons being obtained by the opposition."

The same day, Army General Martin E. Dempsey told Fareed Zakaria, "I would challenge anyone to clearly identify for me the opposition movement at this point."

"There are a number of players, all of whom are trying to reinforce their particular side of this issue. And until we're a lot clearer about who they are and what they are, I think it would be premature to talk about arming them."

Dempsey also noted Syria's military is "very capable" and the country has a "sophisticated, integrated" air defense system.  

As Abu Muquwama noted, according to the 2011 Military Balance, Syria has 4,950 main battle tanks; 2,450 BPMs; 1,500 more armored personnel carriers; 3,440+ pieces of artillery; and 600,000 men under arms in the active and reserve forces. How is it possible outside forces provide the Syrian rebels with the material necessary to counter this? The answer is that it's not possible; intervention will become necessary.

I am really torn about this issue. On the one hand, what's happening in Syria isn't right. Al-Assad will not stop until he's taken out. But arming the opposition makes me extremely uneasy.  It won't solve anything, and would probably lead to foreign intervention. 

Plus, aren't these guys amongst the rebels?

Yes. 

Does the term blowback ring a bell?

I wouldn't trust them not to turn the weapons against religious and racial minorities, especially Shi'ites, a sect the militant organization considers apostates.  Providing them with weapons would in effect be saving the lives of some--those targeted by the al-Assad regime--by sacrificing those of others--those targeted by al-Qaeda.  

Al-Qaeda joins the Syrian Opposition

Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri appeared on a video Sunday entitled, "Onward, Lions of Syria," condemning the "anti-Islam" al-Assad regime and calling on Muslims to join the uprising.  He extolled pon followers to rely not upon the West, the Arab League and Turkey for protection, but instead "on Allah alone and then on your sacrifices, resistance, and steadfastness."

Bashar al-Assad claimed AQ's involvement in the uprising from the early days, while opposition forces asserted his allegations were an excuse to crack down and slow Western opposition to his methods of repression.  

According to various jihadi websites, foreign supporters of AQ have already joined--and died for--the opposition.

The video was released the day after Western officials told McClatchy Iraqi AQ was behind a double suicide bombing in Damascus last Friday that targeted Syrian security forces and killed at least 28 people. 

This isn't entirely surprising, since AQ hates Shi'ites and al-Assad's Alawaite sect is viewed as a branch if Shi'ism.  It will be interesting to see how the United States and its allies react to AQ forces moving into Syria to fight the regime.  Is it possible to fight on the same side? If not, it may not be a great thing for the Syrian opposition if the West begins to get queazy about involvement in the war. It will definitely make policymakers (here's looking at you, Khalilzad and Lieberman) think twice about arming the opposition. 

Drones--And they're back!

There have been various signs over the past week the relationship between the United States and the Pakistan is on the mend.  The resumption of drone attacks is the most evident.  Ten militants were killed near Miramshah in Waziristan on Wednesday after missiles hit their compound.  The next day, AQ/TTP member Badar Mansoor was killed inside Miramshah.  As he was blamed for attacks that killed dozens of Pakistanis, Pakistani officials were most likely happy to see him go and have thus far not spoken out against the strike.

On Tuesday, Pakistani Defense Minister Ahmad Mukhtar voiced support for reopening NATO supply routes to Afghanistan closed after a November 2011 NATO-Afghan cross border attack killed 24 Pakistani soldiers.  Pakistan's National Assembly is set to debate reopening the route, albeit for a price.

Incredibly importantly, there are reports the Obama administration is considering a public apology for the November raid, for which it has thus far only expressed "deep regret."  The NYT quoted a State Department official as saying, "We've felt an apology would be helpful in creating some space."  I'd be interested in hearing the military's take on the apology, whether or not there has been a shift toward supporting such a gesture. It is my understanding the military at the time was not incredibly excited about the possibility of an apology, judging by the murky role Pakistani forces play in the Afghanistan war.  It probably doesn't help that US forces along the border have long suspected Pakistani forces have been attacking them from the safety of Pakistani border posts

US Centcom commander General Mattis is scheduled to visit Islamabad for talks with Pakistan's army chief General Kayani next week.  I'd hardly expect a kumbaya, but I guess it's good to move back to being frenemies instead of enemies. 

What wanna-be jihadis do in their mother's kitchen

When I first learned that al-Qaeda's English-language Inspire magazine led with an article called "Make a Bomb in Your Mother's Kitchen," written by a 25 year old from North Carolina, my first instinct was to laugh. After all, one's life has probably hit rock-bottom when you're sitting in your mom's kitchen googling how to wreck havoc on the infidels.

Western intelligence agencies found the article in now-deceased Anwar al-Awlaki's magazine an easy target for somewhat sarcastic cyber attack. In June 2011, Britain's MI6 hacked into the website and replaced the bomb-making instructions with how to make Ellen DeGenere's best cupcakes in America. I'm sure those who tried downloading the instructions particularly appreciated the mojito cupcake recipe.

Months later, AQ's outreach to the English-speaking world is proving to be anything but funny. Both al-Awlaki and the 25 year old North Carolinian Samir Khan have been killed in drone strikes, but Inspire and other AQ-affiliated English publications are alarmingly successfully recruiting European and American lone wolves to their cause. Jose Pimentel was arrested for building a pipe bomb in his mother's house to target military and government sites New York City. Army Pfc. Naser Jason Abdo was charged with planning to bomb a restaurant filled with troops from nearby Fort Hood in Texas; authorities found the article in his backpack. Two German Muslim converts, Christian Emde and Robert Baum, were stopped in Dover, UK, with the article, among others. And just this week, four British citizens pled guilty to planning an attack on the London Stock Exchange using homemade explosives following Inspire's instructions.

The magazine remains online, with thousands of followers. Its popularity is just one in many signs of the dangers a fragmented AQ poses to the United States and her allies. In fact, in this week's spy chief briefing on global threats on the Hill, DNI chief James Clapper noted that while AQ's core may be weakened, its franchises and the homegrown violent extremists (HVEs, more commonly referred to as lone wolves) continue to be a threat.

"The movement will continue to be a dangerous transnational force, regardless of the status of core al-Qa'ida, its affiliates, and its allies. Terrorist groups and individuals sympathetic to the jihadist movement will have access to the recruits, financing, arms and explosives, and safe haves needed to execute operations."

HVEs and franchises may (thus far) be less lethal than pre-9/11 AQ Central, as they lack the capability to pull off another attack on the level of 9/11. But they are much more difficult to stop.