FP: Secret State Department cable supports claims of chemical weapons use in Syria

A secret cable signed by the US Consulate General in Istanbul, Scott Frederick Kilner, supports claims by the Syrian opposition the regime used chemical weapons against its own people in an attack against Homs last month.

Homs (AJE)

The Consulate's intensive investigation produced a "compelling case" that claims that Syrian President Bashar al-Asad used chemical weapons were true.  The investigation included interviews with activists, doctors, and defectors, including Mustafa al-Sheikh, a former regime major general and WMD official.

Opposition figures published videos and photos of the December 23 attack.

FP spoke with doctors who treated the victims. All were sure victims fell prey to chemical weapons, not tear gas.  The medical officials attributed 5 deaths and around 100 cases of severe respiratory, nervous system, and gastrointestinal pain to the poison.

"The main symptom of the respiratory ailments was bronchial secretions," said Dr. Nashwan Abu Abdo, who spoke to FP from Homs.  "This particular symptom was the cause of death of all the people.  All of them died choking on their own secretions.

Abdo said the chemical weapons were fired by tank shell.  The symptoms of those who were further from the shelling included gastrointestinal pain, nausea, and vomiting.

According to FP, the doctors concluded the weapons where chemical and not tear gas because of three factors: the suddenness of death of those directly exposed, the large number of people affected, and hte fact that many had reoccurring symptoms after treatment, meaning the chemical agent had settled in their nervous system and/or fat.

The State Department would not comment on the contents of the secret cable. If true, the attack means the al-Asad regime crossed the "red line" delineated by President Obama last year.

"We have been very clear to the al-Asad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized," said President Obama.  "That would change my calculus.  That would change my equation."

US policy has not yet shifted to reflect the reported use of chemical weapons.

Satellite images showing Syria preparing for the use of chemical weapons in early December 2012 prompted a rare united international push against the regime.  

Saudi to its citizens: About that whole jihad thing--don't.

Mindful of how that whole send-jihadists-to-fight-the-Soviets-in-Afghanistan thing turned out (enter: Osama bin Laden, security vacuum in Afghanistan, militant networks in Pakistan, al-Qaeda in general, militants turning against the Saudis... need I go on?), Saudi is trying to stop its citizens from joining the rebel fighters and what some see as holy war in Syria.

The United States wasn't the only country to experience blowback after helping the Afghans fight the Soviets.  Saudi too faced blowback as its returning fighters, emboldened by experience in the field, driven by strong religiosity and angry at the excesses and willingness of its own government to work with the infidels, turned its ire against the Kingdom.  

Saudis are furious at the news reports and images leaking out of Syria of decimation of streets and villages, deaths, and disrespect for religious symbols, as rebel forces fight those loyal to Bashir al-Assad. The country's Wahhabism is further stoking the fire.  The ultra-puritanical strain of Islam sees Shi'ites, of which al-Assad's Alawite sect is an offshoot, as heretics.  

A video entitled "A message from a Saudi fighter with his Syrian brothers" showing a Saudi with rebels, armed to the teeth, posted on YouTube in August, has been seen more than 121,000 times.

"I ask God to unite us in heaven and say to my brothers in the Arabian peninsula to fight in the name of God as your brothers in the Levant need fighters of strong faith and chivalry," said the unidentified Saudi.  

The Saudi government is putting pressure on the al-Assad regime publicly calling on the international community to "enable" Syrians to protect themselves amid reports the Saudis, along with the Qataris and Turks, are funneling cash and arms to the Free Syrian Army.  But they are drawing the line there.

"It's illegal to go abroad and get involved in any...military actions or fighting," Interior Ministry spokesman Mansour Turki said.  "This is known to all Saudis and many have been prosecuted.  If we have evidence that somebody is leaving Saudi Arabia for the purpose of joining militants, he will be stopped and investigated for that."  

Clerics have joined the government in pushing back against jihad.

"Families must watch over sons who can be lured into hot spots in this world," said cleric Siraj al-Zahrani. 

"They don't want to repeat the same mistake they made in Afghanistan," said a Saudi who fought the Soviets there.  "Young men went there and learned to fight with many groups of jihadists.  Some of those groups accused Islamic countries of being infidels and the young people were influenced by that and went back to their countries and caused problems." 

Whether or not the government has influence over the estranged youth is questionable.  

"The youth of jihad don't listen to the Council of Senior Clerics," said an Saudi who fought in Afghanistan.

The government's official line is also being ridiculed in online jihadist forums.

"Abdullah, call for jihad against this Syrian tyrant and his aides and you will find, God willing, strong men who have a faith in God to lift the banner of Islam," said one user on a prominent site al-Waseem.  "Enough weakness."

Neocons demand Obama establish "safe zones" in Syria

If Fouad Ajami, L. Paul Bremer, Doug Feith, Robert Kagan, Bill Kristol, Karl Rove, Leon Wieseltier, Robert Zarate, and their neocon ilk support something, I automatically assume it's a bad idea.

A group of mostly conservatives affiliated with the Foreign Policy Initiative wrote to the Obama administration asking it to establish "safe zones" in Syria by using military power to protect civilians and counter the Syrian regime's offensive.

"Such safe zones would serve as a destination for civilians fleeing violence," argued the group.  "They would also provide the country's opposition groups--which have actively stood up to the Assad regime's relentless aggression, and bravely defended their cities, towns, and villages in the absence of decisive international action--a place to train, be equipped, and organize."

Nothing these guys have ever supported have been good ideas (Invade Iraq--we'll be greeted with flowers! Disband the Iraqi military! Kick out all the Baathists in post-invasion Iraq! Bomb Iran! Move troops from Afghanistan to Iraq!).  

Russian exporter with ties to the Pentagon sending missile defense systems to Syria

Russia’s main arms exporter announced on Friday it would send advanced missile defense systems to Syria capable of shooting down airplanes or sinking ships in the event of foreign intervention into the Levantine country’s crisis.

“I would like to say these mechanisms are really a good means of defense, a reliable defense against attacks from the air or sea,” Anatoly P. Isaykin, the general director of Rosoboronexport, said.  “This is not a threat, but whoever is planning an attack should think about this."

According to the New York Times, among the weapons to be shipped to Syria are the Pantsyr-S1, a radar-guided missile and artillery system capable of hitting warplanes at altitudes well above those typically flown during bombing sorties, and up to 12 miles away; Buk-M2 antiaircraft missiles, capable of striking airplanes at even higher altitudes, up to 82,000 feet, and at longer ranges; and land-based Bastion antiship missiles that can fire at targets 180 miles from the coast.

Buk-M2 antiaircraft missiles.
Photo: AP

The systems to be shipped are not considered to be top of the line.  Rather, the announcement is another step in the retrenching of tensions between Moscow and Washington. 

The two have been butting heads over the cause and how to handle Syria’s spiral of violence.  The United States accuses Russia of supporting a murderous dictator, President Bashar al-Assad, and condoning his use of violence, while Russia accuses the United States of  pro-rebel bias and military adventurism.  Russia believes NATO and the United States overstepped its mandate during the Libyan war and violated domestic sovereignty. 

There were also reports Moscow was planning on sending an amphibious landing vessel and a small squad of marines to Tartus in Syria to provide security for military instillations and infrastructure. 

Russia is Syria’s biggest arms supplier and maintains its only base outside the former Soviet Union in Tartus. 

Moscow emphasizes the arms sold to Damascus are defensive in nature and are not being used against the opposition.  Isaykin told reporters Moscow has not shipped rifles, ground-to-ground rockets, helicopters and onboard weapons, or armored vehicles—necessities for a civil war—to Syria in over ten years. 

Meanwhile, a United States senator criticized the Department of Defense for granting Rosoboronexport a no-bid contract to provide Afghanistan’s forces with 21 Mi-17 helicopters, valued around $1 billion. 

“I remain deeply troubled that the [Department of Defense] would knowingly do business with a firm that enabled mass atrocities in Syria,” Republican and member of the Senate Armed Services Committee John Cornyn wrote in a letter to DOD secretary Leon Panetta. 

The Pentagon responded that the deal with Rosoboronexport is the “only legally available method” to supply the helicopters to Afghanistan. 

“We understand the concerns,” said Pentagon spokesman George Little.  “We’re not ignoring them.  But I would make the point that, in the case of Afghanistan, the Mi-17 is about giving them what they need and what they can use effectively to take on their own fights inside the country.

The Russian arms exporter was subject to United States sanctions from 2006 to 2010 for allegedly supplying Iran and Syria with equipment that could be used to build weapons of mass destruction.  A United States intelligence report this week also said the firm was supplying Iran with equipment for its disputed missile program.  

Eager Lion: US will lead massive 12,000 soldier, 19 country "irregular warfare" exercise

The United States will lead a massive military exercise involving over 12,000 soldiers and 19 countries, based in Jordan.  Fellow participants include Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Lebanon, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Britain, France, Italy, Spain, and Australia.  The exercise, dubbed Eager Lion, will span two weeks.

According to the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), the purpose of Eager Lion is to strengthen military-to-military relationships between participating nations through joint approaches, integrating all instruments of national power to meet current and future complex national security challenges. 

“The message that I want to send through this exercise is that we have developed the right partners throughout the region and across the world…insuring that we have the ability to…meet challenges that are coming to our nations,” said United States Major General Ken Tovo, commander of United States Special Operations Forces.

Major General Tovo addresses reporters in Amman.
Photo: France 24

Major General Tovo took pains to emphasize no forces would be deployed to Jordan’s north bordering Syria.  “This has nothing to do with Syria.  We respect the sovereignty of Syria,” he explained. 

The exercise is expected to draw criticism from Iran, which is facing intense pressure from Western and Arab capitals to curtail its nuclear program and perceived regional aspirations. 

It is also meant to emphasize continued United States engagement in the region despite withdrawal from Iraq and United States support for Jordan.  Jordanian officials are concerned about unrest spilling over its borders from Syria entangling its own restless Palestinian population.

Publicly, officials from participating countries say the operation is aimed at no country in particular, but instead against “realistic threats.”

I smell a conspiracy theory

According to Lebanon's the Daily Star, thirteen French troops are being detained in a hospital in Syria.

The paper said it is not clear why the officers were in Syria, when they had arrived, or whether they were part of a larger contingent in the city of Homs.

Conspiracy theories swirled (this being the Middle East, after all) about British and French involvement in Libya.

We got another one.

FP: Congresswoman leads-one person congressional delegation to Syrian Embassy

Sheila Jackson Lee is infamous on the Hill for being a terrible boss. I am charitable in saying she is known for her diva-like qualities and tormenting her staffers.

She is also well known for her antics, and this one takes the cake.  She wrote a letter asking the Members of Congress to join her at the Syrian Embassy in Washington "to ask for an immediate cease-fire, a resumption of international mediation, and a peaceful end to the conflict."

Not surprisingly, not one other member joined her on her meeting at the Syrian Embassy to "express ur disapproval of actions taken by President Bashar al-Assad's troops against the people of Syria."

Not only is she crazy, she's stupid for letting herself be used by the al-Assad regime.

According to one congressional aide, "It's hard to show your support for the people of Syria by legitimizing a regime that continues to brutalize them."

Yikes. 

Guest post: The Syrian people are one

By Faress Jouejati

Despite the impressive numbers of Bashar al-Assad’s security apparatus, the Syrian army is not all that powerful. Furthermore, Syrian security forces are now tired and demoralized. Thus, an important show of outside force would cause major cracks in the Syrian army. Let us not forget that there already is foreign intervention in Syria: Russia, Iran, and Hizbullah have all equipped the Syrian army with highly lethal material. The latter two have sent troops to support the regime’s barbaric crackdown on peaceful protesters.

Yes, the weapons al-Assad has are superior to what we can send the Free Syria Army, but, forget not, he is using this military superiority against civilians. It would be outrageous for us to simply sit and watch -- and debate whether we should save civilian lives or not intervene. More than 8,000 have already been murdered: a catastrophe is looming and the civilian casualties will be massive if all we do is flock from one meeting to the next hoping that diplomacy and more sanctions will put an end to state-sponsored terrorism.

Arming the FSA is the best bet to protect the civilians. The arms sent to the FSA would not necessarily be used in acts of vengeance: Syria does not have the kind of sectarian strife that Lebanon, for example, has. Plus, the type of Islam prevalent in Syria is not an extremist Salafist type, to say nothing of the fact that the FSA has rejected the assistance of al-Qaeda. In any case, it is the convoluted Friends of Assad who are bent on inciting sectarianism among the protesters who, to this day, chant, “al shaab al surie wahed (the Syrian people are one).”

To Syrians still on the fence, I say this: the free people of Syria are not rising to please the East or West. They are not paying blood to replace one set of tyrants with another. Remaining silent, however, makes the Revolution more vulnerable to groups with separate agendas from the demands of the Syrian people—freedom, democracy, equality, and justice.

A safe-zone should be established inside Syrian territory, funded by the Gulf and controlled by Turkey. This will give Syrians access to humanitarian relief and provide the FSA with a base out of which to operate. In addition to military equipment, what the FSA needs urgently is communications equipment: stronger command-and-control would give them an edge since they already have the advantage in mobility. The high motivation of the FSA's foot soldiers makes up for the deficit in numbers.

Given the above, it makes sense to support the Syrian people and equip the Free Syria Army. The Syrian people have the right to access medical supplies and weapons to save and protect their families. We must make the presently lopsided balance of power a more equal playing field.

McCain and Graham reiterate support for arming Syrian rebels

Senators John McCain and Lindsay Graham, both on the Senate Armed Services Committee, went before the Sunday talk shows this morning to speak out strongly in favor of arming the Syrian rebels. 

"I believe there are ways to get weapons to the opposition without direct United States involvement," said McCain. "...People that are being massacred deserve to have the ability to defend themselves.  So I am not only opposed, but I am in favor of weapons being obtained by the opposition."

The same day, Army General Martin E. Dempsey told Fareed Zakaria, "I would challenge anyone to clearly identify for me the opposition movement at this point."

"There are a number of players, all of whom are trying to reinforce their particular side of this issue. And until we're a lot clearer about who they are and what they are, I think it would be premature to talk about arming them."

Dempsey also noted Syria's military is "very capable" and the country has a "sophisticated, integrated" air defense system.  

As Abu Muquwama noted, according to the 2011 Military Balance, Syria has 4,950 main battle tanks; 2,450 BPMs; 1,500 more armored personnel carriers; 3,440+ pieces of artillery; and 600,000 men under arms in the active and reserve forces. How is it possible outside forces provide the Syrian rebels with the material necessary to counter this? The answer is that it's not possible; intervention will become necessary.

I am really torn about this issue. On the one hand, what's happening in Syria isn't right. Al-Assad will not stop until he's taken out. But arming the opposition makes me extremely uneasy.  It won't solve anything, and would probably lead to foreign intervention. 

Plus, aren't these guys amongst the rebels?

Yes. 

Does the term blowback ring a bell?

I wouldn't trust them not to turn the weapons against religious and racial minorities, especially Shi'ites, a sect the militant organization considers apostates.  Providing them with weapons would in effect be saving the lives of some--those targeted by the al-Assad regime--by sacrificing those of others--those targeted by al-Qaeda.  

Ballsiness of the Day: Syria's Ambassador to the UN Quotes Jesus in Response to criticism of Bloody Crackdown

Wow.

Syria's ambassador to the UN Bashar al-Jafaari quoted Jesus in response to criticism of the al-Assad government's bloody crackdown on its people.

"Yes, we have shortcoming, yes, we have problems in Syria.  Is there one among you whose country does not have shortcoming or problems? Would any one of you be the first to cast the first stone?"

Pretty confident shelling your own people and killing thousands is not what Jesus had in mind. 

Al-Qaeda joins the Syrian Opposition

Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri appeared on a video Sunday entitled, "Onward, Lions of Syria," condemning the "anti-Islam" al-Assad regime and calling on Muslims to join the uprising.  He extolled pon followers to rely not upon the West, the Arab League and Turkey for protection, but instead "on Allah alone and then on your sacrifices, resistance, and steadfastness."

Bashar al-Assad claimed AQ's involvement in the uprising from the early days, while opposition forces asserted his allegations were an excuse to crack down and slow Western opposition to his methods of repression.  

According to various jihadi websites, foreign supporters of AQ have already joined--and died for--the opposition.

The video was released the day after Western officials told McClatchy Iraqi AQ was behind a double suicide bombing in Damascus last Friday that targeted Syrian security forces and killed at least 28 people. 

This isn't entirely surprising, since AQ hates Shi'ites and al-Assad's Alawaite sect is viewed as a branch if Shi'ism.  It will be interesting to see how the United States and its allies react to AQ forces moving into Syria to fight the regime.  Is it possible to fight on the same side? If not, it may not be a great thing for the Syrian opposition if the West begins to get queazy about involvement in the war. It will definitely make policymakers (here's looking at you, Khalilzad and Lieberman) think twice about arming the opposition.