Mubarak not military enough for tribunal

The head of Egypt's military judiciary, Adl al-Morsy, said today Mubarak cannot be referred to a military court, as he does not have a current military designation.  According to al-Morsy, his title as chief commander of the armed forces was honorary.

Except, when he was struggling to hang on to power, he pled with his people to remember his service as a pilot in Egypt's Air Force. The military branch of which he served as commander from 1972 to 1975.

Oh, so you have to have a current military designation to be tried before the military court in Egypt?

Like activist Asmaa Mahfouz?

Or blogger Michael Nabil?

Or blogger Alaa abd el-Fattah?

Or any of the other 12,000 Egyptians sentenced before military courts from February to August 2011?

FP: Congresswoman leads-one person congressional delegation to Syrian Embassy

Sheila Jackson Lee is infamous on the Hill for being a terrible boss. I am charitable in saying she is known for her diva-like qualities and tormenting her staffers.

She is also well known for her antics, and this one takes the cake.  She wrote a letter asking the Members of Congress to join her at the Syrian Embassy in Washington "to ask for an immediate cease-fire, a resumption of international mediation, and a peaceful end to the conflict."

Not surprisingly, not one other member joined her on her meeting at the Syrian Embassy to "express ur disapproval of actions taken by President Bashar al-Assad's troops against the people of Syria."

Not only is she crazy, she's stupid for letting herself be used by the al-Assad regime.

According to one congressional aide, "It's hard to show your support for the people of Syria by legitimizing a regime that continues to brutalize them."

Yikes. 

Guest post: The Syrian people are one

By Faress Jouejati

Despite the impressive numbers of Bashar al-Assad’s security apparatus, the Syrian army is not all that powerful. Furthermore, Syrian security forces are now tired and demoralized. Thus, an important show of outside force would cause major cracks in the Syrian army. Let us not forget that there already is foreign intervention in Syria: Russia, Iran, and Hizbullah have all equipped the Syrian army with highly lethal material. The latter two have sent troops to support the regime’s barbaric crackdown on peaceful protesters.

Yes, the weapons al-Assad has are superior to what we can send the Free Syria Army, but, forget not, he is using this military superiority against civilians. It would be outrageous for us to simply sit and watch -- and debate whether we should save civilian lives or not intervene. More than 8,000 have already been murdered: a catastrophe is looming and the civilian casualties will be massive if all we do is flock from one meeting to the next hoping that diplomacy and more sanctions will put an end to state-sponsored terrorism.

Arming the FSA is the best bet to protect the civilians. The arms sent to the FSA would not necessarily be used in acts of vengeance: Syria does not have the kind of sectarian strife that Lebanon, for example, has. Plus, the type of Islam prevalent in Syria is not an extremist Salafist type, to say nothing of the fact that the FSA has rejected the assistance of al-Qaeda. In any case, it is the convoluted Friends of Assad who are bent on inciting sectarianism among the protesters who, to this day, chant, “al shaab al surie wahed (the Syrian people are one).”

To Syrians still on the fence, I say this: the free people of Syria are not rising to please the East or West. They are not paying blood to replace one set of tyrants with another. Remaining silent, however, makes the Revolution more vulnerable to groups with separate agendas from the demands of the Syrian people—freedom, democracy, equality, and justice.

A safe-zone should be established inside Syrian territory, funded by the Gulf and controlled by Turkey. This will give Syrians access to humanitarian relief and provide the FSA with a base out of which to operate. In addition to military equipment, what the FSA needs urgently is communications equipment: stronger command-and-control would give them an edge since they already have the advantage in mobility. The high motivation of the FSA's foot soldiers makes up for the deficit in numbers.

Given the above, it makes sense to support the Syrian people and equip the Free Syria Army. The Syrian people have the right to access medical supplies and weapons to save and protect their families. We must make the presently lopsided balance of power a more equal playing field.

Pucker Up, Buttercup

h/t The Arabist.

SCAF head Hussein Tantawy, kissing Hosni Mubarak, 1980s or early 1990s

Therein lies the problem.

NYT: Egypt relying on accusatory testimony in NGO case

The document detailing the government's case against the NGOs is out and contains some doozies.

Via the NYT:

"The case, for example, cites documents seized in December from one group, the International Republican Institute, that included Wikipedia maps of Egypt showing the country divided into four parts. While Egypt is typically described as comprising four regions--upper and lower Egypt, greater Cairo and the Suez Canal and Sinai region--the prosecution suggested that the maps showed a plan to dismember the country."

For real?

WSJ: Muslim Brotherhood Looks West in Bid to Revive Egyptian Economy

The WSJ has a fascinating (although behind a paywall) article about how the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood eventually agreed to the IMF loan in principle.  The international organization came to the MB, knowing the loan would not push through without their approval.

The MB has long been skeptical of Western intervention, and some members saw the loan similar to those that invited foreign interference in the 18th and 19th centuries to collect debts.

In addition to agreeing to the loan in principle, observers note that now in power, the MB can little afford to rail against Western and Zionist interference. More pressing are economic worries, as Egypt's economy crashes.

Also driving MB decision-making is the rise of the Salafist Nour party, with which the MB must compete for Islamist votes.  As with any country, competition from the right will push politics to the right, perhaps complicating MB efforts to warm to the West.

They have had little time to accustom themselves to the new reality--a year ago they were banned, now they are on the cusp of becoming Egypt's new elite ruling class.

"It's been an extreme crash course for us and it came to a head that day [when they agreed to the loan]," said Essam el-Haddad, the group's foreign policy advisor.  "Remember, for 60 years we were working underground and now we've come out into the light and are staring directly into the sun. We're all blinking and rubbing our eyes, like the Chilean miners. To adapt to this takes time, and we don't have time."

McCain and Graham reiterate support for arming Syrian rebels

Senators John McCain and Lindsay Graham, both on the Senate Armed Services Committee, went before the Sunday talk shows this morning to speak out strongly in favor of arming the Syrian rebels. 

"I believe there are ways to get weapons to the opposition without direct United States involvement," said McCain. "...People that are being massacred deserve to have the ability to defend themselves.  So I am not only opposed, but I am in favor of weapons being obtained by the opposition."

The same day, Army General Martin E. Dempsey told Fareed Zakaria, "I would challenge anyone to clearly identify for me the opposition movement at this point."

"There are a number of players, all of whom are trying to reinforce their particular side of this issue. And until we're a lot clearer about who they are and what they are, I think it would be premature to talk about arming them."

Dempsey also noted Syria's military is "very capable" and the country has a "sophisticated, integrated" air defense system.  

As Abu Muquwama noted, according to the 2011 Military Balance, Syria has 4,950 main battle tanks; 2,450 BPMs; 1,500 more armored personnel carriers; 3,440+ pieces of artillery; and 600,000 men under arms in the active and reserve forces. How is it possible outside forces provide the Syrian rebels with the material necessary to counter this? The answer is that it's not possible; intervention will become necessary.

I am really torn about this issue. On the one hand, what's happening in Syria isn't right. Al-Assad will not stop until he's taken out. But arming the opposition makes me extremely uneasy.  It won't solve anything, and would probably lead to foreign intervention. 

Plus, aren't these guys amongst the rebels?

Yes. 

Does the term blowback ring a bell?

I wouldn't trust them not to turn the weapons against religious and racial minorities, especially Shi'ites, a sect the militant organization considers apostates.  Providing them with weapons would in effect be saving the lives of some--those targeted by the al-Assad regime--by sacrificing those of others--those targeted by al-Qaeda.  

Libyan anchorwoman found dead in prison cell while allegations of torture mount

I was really uncomfortable about the circumstances surrounding Qadhaffi's death.  He was a terrible, terrible man and deserved whatever he had coming.  The individual who killed him was most likely overcome with emotions and determined to inflict revenge on the guy who killed/tortured/raped his friends/family/countrymen.  Completely understandable reaction; to be honest, had I been the dude who first happened upon OBL in Abbottabad I probably would have shot him in the face as well).

That was before his disfigured body was put on display in a freezer in a strip mall in Misrata, where people came to snap cell phone photos with his corpse.

But, I thought, what kind of country will be created if its defining moment was the sodomization (caution: link is graphic) and extrajudicial assassination of its previous leader? What kind of national narrative will that create?  The chief prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo of the ICC even said the circumstances around his death "may have been a war crime."

Unfortunately, my concerns panned out. There have been reports of prisoner torture of supporters of the deposed Brother Leader at the hands of the new Libyan government. MSF (Doctors Without Borders) suspended its work in Misrata because of an alarming rise of torture cases.

According to the BBC, international human rights groups say such incidents are widespread in Libya.  Amnesty International is one such organization, whose spokesman recently said, "The torture is being carried out by officially recognized military and security entities as well as by a multitude of armed militias operating outside any legal framework."

Just this morning, Halah al-Misrati, the former anchorwoman made infamous by her on-air call for jihad against the Libyan rebel forces, was found dead in her prison cell.  The National Transition Council made no comment.

In December 2011, a video was released of her with what appeared to be her tongue cut off.

As Condi said, to much derision, there are always "growing pains." But if these allegations prove to be true, it is worth considering what kind of regime replaced that of Qadhaffi.  

Salafi Rice

If it's election time in Egypt, it's time for free rice.

Together, on the path of light.

Israeli intelligence teams up with terror group-turned-cult to kill Iranian nuclear scientists

If this is true, it is really disturbing.  US officials leaked to NBC Israel is teaming with the Mujahideen e-Khalq (MEK) to kill Iranian nuclear scientists.  

Five Iranian nuclear scientists have been killed since 2007, mostly by car bombs.  The Iranian government said it discovered the connection between Israeli intel forces and the MEK after the 2010 arrest of a would-be assassin who failed in his mission to kill a scientist.

There are also unconfirmed reports in the Israeli press that Israel and the MEK were involved in the November 12, 2011, explosion that destroyed an Iranian missile research and development site in Bin Kaneh, 30 miles outside Tehran.  

Two US officials confirmed the partnership, one saying, "All your inclinations are correct." Israel's Foreign Ministry declined to comment and the MEK said the allegations were "absolutely false."

Formed in 1965 by a group of radical Tehran University students convinced Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was a puppet of the West, the MEK, or the People’s Mujahedin of Iran (PMOI), aimed to spark an armed struggle based on Marxist-Islamist ideology and lead the people in a revolt against the government.  The organization focused on the indoctrination and training in urban guerilla warfare of a small core of activists in its first five years.  It worked closely with the Tudeh (Communist) party throughout the 1970s and developed close ties with the Soviet Union, Cuba, East Germany, and other leftist organizations throughout the world.  An example of the MEK’s outreach to what it perceived to be like-minded international movements was in 1970 when thirteen members traveled to Jordan and Lebanon to receive military training inside Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) camps.  After failed street protests against the Shah in the 1980s, they were exiled to Iraq, where they recently have been kicked out of Camp Ashraf.  

The MEK is just about universally despised at home. I can't imagine a better way to unite Iranians around their regime than to team Israel and the MEK against them.  Even those who share the goal of removing the current regime from power, such as the youth-led Green movement that was so brutally repressed following fixed presidential elections in 2009, reject the group.  Suspicious of its aims and unsupportive of its violent tendencies, the democracy activists seek support at home, as opposed to the MEK’s high profile courtship of Western backing.  According to Zahra Rahnavard, women’s rights activist and wife of Green Movement leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, “The MEK can't be part of the Green Movement. This bankrupt political group is now making some laughable claims, but the Green Movement and the MEK have a wall between them and all of us, including myself, Mr. Mousavi, Mr. [Mohammad] Khatami, and Mr. [Mehdi] Karroubi.”  Not only are the MEK's violent tendencies rejected, but many in Iran see the organization and traitorous terrorists who are willing not only to kill, but to kill their own people. Further, the fact that the MEK sided with Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war is unforgivable.   The destruction wrought by that war on Iranian society is difficult to fathom from the outside—an entire generation of men wiped out, marched to their deaths for naught. 

The organization was placed on the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) when the list was created in 1997.  The MEK has a long history of targeting Americans and Iranians abroad and at home through hostage taking, assassinations, and bombings.  

The MEK's lobbying prowess on Capitol Hill is top notch. For years, its political arm was practically the only Iranian-American group organized for lobbying. Drawing upon its deep pocket from undisclosed sources, the MEK asserts it speaks for the people of Iran, demands democracy for its people, and seeks to work with the US to undermine the Islamic Republic.  These efforts have been remarkably successful. In 2011--not a year of bipartisanship, to say the least-the MEK was able to get 51 Democrats and 45 Republicans to sign a resolution calling on State to remove the MEK from the list of FTOs.  

It also counts Howard Dean, Rudy Giuliani, former chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Hugh Shelton and Peter Pace, Wesley Clark, General James Jones, former FBI Director Louis J. Freeh, former intel officials Dennis Blair and Michael Haden, former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, former Attorney General Michael B. Mukasey, and former congressman and 9/11 Commission co-chair Lee Hamilton among its supporters.  At least a handful of these officials receive generous speaking fees from the group.  

There has been pushback by United States officials against changing the designation of the MEK as a terrorist organization. Cofer Black, the Department of State’s former counterterrorism coordinator, said, “The US government does not negotiate with terrorists. The MEK’s opposition to the Iranian government does not change the fact that they are a terrorist organization.”   As Secretary of State, Colin Powell said, “Any flirtation with the MEK would undermine Washington’s stand against terrorism.”   Current Obama administration officials have been less explicit. In a October 27, 2011, hearing before the House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would only say State is currently reviewing the designation of MEK as a terrorist organization.

Cooperation between Israeli intelligence forces and the MEK is a publicity coup for the Iranian regime and further alienates any sections of Iranian society who may be not completely supportive or adamant about Iran's nuclear program.  While the partnership may make short-term gains by taking out a few scientists or program sites, it is not a long term solution and only makes the situation more polarized and emotionally fraught.

Power struggle in Egypt's ruling class

The NYT had a good piece this morning about the fracturing of the powers that be in Egypt.  As a reader of this blog noted, while SCAF likes to portray itself as all-powerful (and Western media tends to oblige), in reality Egyptian politicians are competing against each other in the newly opened political climate.

Fayza abdul Naga, minister of planning and international cooperation, is leading the charge against foreign-funded democracy organizations. Tensions between Egypt and the United States spiked after various international and local organizations were raided in December 2011.  Forty three individuals have been slapped with travel bans, nineteen of which are Americans.  Washington has urged Cairo in vain to rescind the travel bans.  Various US politicians have threatened to cut US military aid, amounting to $1.3 billion annually, if the situation is not resolved.  

Three Americans have sought refuge at the US embassy in Cairo, including the son of US Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood.  They will be prosecuted for alleged licensing irregularities.  

Politicians and generals have long accused "foreign hands" of being behind the unrest, and this weekend some reiterated the claim in justifying the crackdown on NGOs.

After a visit by General Martin Dempsey, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, SCAF chief Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi publicly urged "the importance of maintaining the established relationships between the US and Egypt, and strengthening them." He also held a cabinet meeting--of which Naga is a member--urging ministers to "strike a balance" in public statements. 

Naga, a long time politician, bureaucrat, and holdovers from Mubarak's rule, blatantly disregarded the SCAF chief's pleas, escalating her rhetoric this weekend.  As a holdover from Mubarak, her position is obviously tenuous as her old colleagues are purged and even brought to trial.  US funding is an issue that just about unites Egyptians (in opposition to the US).  It's emotional, complex, and a bit understandable.  She once called it humiliating.  

Drumming this issue may make her untouchable.  Perhaps even more, as the NYT notes, it may even make her electable.

Happy Valentine's Day from Um Widad: "Experience love...even before marriage, that's okay. But don't do anything forbidden by Islam."

The UAE's most famous marriage counselor, Widad Lootah, was profiled by the AFP yesterday.  Infamous for her 2009 book Top Secret: Sexual Guidance for Married Couples, she has received praise from liberal Muslims (and death threats from fundamentalists) for discussing oral sex (okay), the dangers of anal sex (banned in the Quran), female orgasms (definitely okay), the importance of sex ed (necessary), and homosexuality (banned in the Quran).

Lootah

Photo Bryan Denton from the NYT

Lootah speaks in terms of Islam and the Quran, avoiding Western liberal ideas such as women's rights. Her book was even approved by the Mufti of Dubai.

In her book, she wrote of a 52-year old grandmother who had never experienced pleasure with her husband.

"Finally, she discovered orgasm! Imagine, all the time she did not know!"

Lootah, called Um Widad by her clients, aims to break the stigma associated with sex in the UAE and throughout the Arab world, noting "what happens (or doesn't happen) in bed" is the key to a happy marriage.

"Don't shy away from it, don't feel ashamed by it. Enjoy it, you're supposed to," she told to AFP. "It's also about having fun" and its "at the core" of a happy marriage.

"Everything else [aside from anal sex], including all sexually intimate acts below the belly button, is allowed, Feel each other, touch each other, kiss each other all over...it's okay."

Lootah is an advocate for sex ed, saying, "It's very important that we educate them, both males and females, about sex...we have to prepare them psychologically and emotionally for it, and we have to teach them about the act itself."

Ballsiness of the Day: Syria's Ambassador to the UN Quotes Jesus in Response to criticism of Bloody Crackdown

Wow.

Syria's ambassador to the UN Bashar al-Jafaari quoted Jesus in response to criticism of the al-Assad government's bloody crackdown on its people.

"Yes, we have shortcoming, yes, we have problems in Syria.  Is there one among you whose country does not have shortcoming or problems? Would any one of you be the first to cast the first stone?"

Pretty confident shelling your own people and killing thousands is not what Jesus had in mind. 

Protesters Killed in Saudi's East

A few months ago I attended an off-the-record discussion with an academic and writer who believed of all the countries in the Middle East and North Africa, Saudi had the least to worry about.  He seemed to think the Saudis could keep their people happy by keeping them awash in petrodollars.

Despite public perceptions of all Saudis being rich and happy, there are poor Saudis, even in the country's capital, Riyadh. Blogger Feras Bouqnah and his team were arrested after they released a YouTube video, below, talking about poverty in Saudi Arabia. His show, "Mal3oob 3aleena," or "We Are Being Cheated," is popular in the Gulf state.

It's definitely worth watching in full.

I told him I thought he was incredibly mistaken. There has been unrest in (oil-rich) eastern Saudi for months, much of it fuelled by minority Shi'ites who feel repressed and marginalized by the Sunni monarchy.

Photo of protests in Qatif from http://www.facebook.com/Revolution.East

The volatile situation got worse this weekend when two protesters, most recently Zuhair al-Said, in Qatif were shot dead by security forces; at least three others were injured.  Security officials claimed they were responding to live-fire attacks by protesters.  Videos posted online by activists showed no such attacks.  Activists also posted videos of al-Said's funeral procession and his body.

At least seven have died over the past year in protests in Saudi, who accuses neighbor and Shi'ite power of fueling unrest along their shared border.  The Arab country also accuses protesters of collaboration with the Persian country. 

Al-Qaeda joins the Syrian Opposition

Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri appeared on a video Sunday entitled, "Onward, Lions of Syria," condemning the "anti-Islam" al-Assad regime and calling on Muslims to join the uprising.  He extolled pon followers to rely not upon the West, the Arab League and Turkey for protection, but instead "on Allah alone and then on your sacrifices, resistance, and steadfastness."

Bashar al-Assad claimed AQ's involvement in the uprising from the early days, while opposition forces asserted his allegations were an excuse to crack down and slow Western opposition to his methods of repression.  

According to various jihadi websites, foreign supporters of AQ have already joined--and died for--the opposition.

The video was released the day after Western officials told McClatchy Iraqi AQ was behind a double suicide bombing in Damascus last Friday that targeted Syrian security forces and killed at least 28 people. 

This isn't entirely surprising, since AQ hates Shi'ites and al-Assad's Alawaite sect is viewed as a branch if Shi'ism.  It will be interesting to see how the United States and its allies react to AQ forces moving into Syria to fight the regime.  Is it possible to fight on the same side? If not, it may not be a great thing for the Syrian opposition if the West begins to get queazy about involvement in the war. It will definitely make policymakers (here's looking at you, Khalilzad and Lieberman) think twice about arming the opposition. 

OBL: Go West, My Children?

Really not sure I believe this, but apparently bin Laden told his kids to not to follow in his (jihadi) footsteps and get an education in Europe or America.

Homegrown terror: It may not come from where you'd expect

While the threat of radicalized Muslims gets a lot of attention, another source of homegrown terror is often overlooked.  That threat comes from militia, white supremacists, sovereign citizens, and other right-wing groups. Since the 2008 presidential election there has been a sharp uptick in radical rightwing (and to a less publicized extent leftwing) movements. There was a 2009 US Department of Homeland Security report on this uptick, which faced strong conservative criticism.  GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich accused DHS of "smearing veterans and conservatives."


The FBI recently said it is increasingly concerned about the threat of terrorism committed by sovereign citizens, whose ideology, according to AFP, rejects government authority, refuses to pay taxes, does not recognize US currency, and has a tendency to engage in violence.  Such ideology spawned the Oklahoma City Bombing of 1995.  Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's counterterror division Stuart McArthur said, "The ideology itself promotes violence and encourages violence.  We want to focus on this particular threat."


The FBI's announcement comes on the heels of a Triangle Center on Terrorism and Homeland Security study proposing the perceived threat of radicalized American Muslims is unfounded.  Charles Kurzman, author of the report, said such terrorism poses "a minuscule threat to public safety." The study found 20 Muslim Americans were charged in violent plots or attacks in 2011, down from 26 in 2010 and a high of 47 in 2009. He also wrote a book entitled, "The Missing Martyrs: Why There Are So Few Muslim Terrorists."  As such, he does have a vested interest in the issue. 


I would not go so far as saying radicalized Muslims pose a "minuscule" threat, but I do think much of the fear and suspicion our fellow Americans who happen to be Muslim face is unfounded and only isolates an important swath of our society.  Much more attention should be paid toward extreme right wing groups intent on lashing out at a country that dares to elect a man named Barack Hussein Obama to office.

Drones--And they're back!

There have been various signs over the past week the relationship between the United States and the Pakistan is on the mend.  The resumption of drone attacks is the most evident.  Ten militants were killed near Miramshah in Waziristan on Wednesday after missiles hit their compound.  The next day, AQ/TTP member Badar Mansoor was killed inside Miramshah.  As he was blamed for attacks that killed dozens of Pakistanis, Pakistani officials were most likely happy to see him go and have thus far not spoken out against the strike.

On Tuesday, Pakistani Defense Minister Ahmad Mukhtar voiced support for reopening NATO supply routes to Afghanistan closed after a November 2011 NATO-Afghan cross border attack killed 24 Pakistani soldiers.  Pakistan's National Assembly is set to debate reopening the route, albeit for a price.

Incredibly importantly, there are reports the Obama administration is considering a public apology for the November raid, for which it has thus far only expressed "deep regret."  The NYT quoted a State Department official as saying, "We've felt an apology would be helpful in creating some space."  I'd be interested in hearing the military's take on the apology, whether or not there has been a shift toward supporting such a gesture. It is my understanding the military at the time was not incredibly excited about the possibility of an apology, judging by the murky role Pakistani forces play in the Afghanistan war.  It probably doesn't help that US forces along the border have long suspected Pakistani forces have been attacking them from the safety of Pakistani border posts

US Centcom commander General Mattis is scheduled to visit Islamabad for talks with Pakistan's army chief General Kayani next week.  I'd hardly expect a kumbaya, but I guess it's good to move back to being frenemies instead of enemies. 

How do you say, "Diesel Fuel" and "No Smoking" in Arabic?

Via  The Guardian.


Photograph: Sahil Anand/Facebook


"A contract company out here [in Egypt] was asked to stencil on the side of a fuel tanker: Diesel Fuel in Arabic and No Smoking in Arabic. This is what came back." 

Egypt vs. Pakistan, con't

A friend rightly pointed out this morning that Egypt and Pakistan are two different countries, two different cultures, two different societies.  I mentioned this in passing in my previous post highlighting Dunne and Nawaz's piece in the New York Times asking if Egypt can avoid Pakistan's fate. When I initially read the headline of the NYT piece I was a bit skeptical--I hate easy situational comparisons that ignore differences between countries (Egypt is becoming Pakistan! Turkey is becoming Iran! Afghanistan is our Vietnam!). Glosses over too much.  And if it's simplistic enough to be featured on CNN, it's probably wrong.

I think another important thing to mention is the liberals/activists/more Western-oriented individuals, whatever you want to call them, still have faith there is a place for them in Egypt. They're engaging in their communities and politics (although to varying degrees of success) and many are moving back to Egypt to contribute to this new society.  Most people I met from Pakistan, however, that fit this bill have left and never looked back.  A few months ago I met a girl on an airplane from Pakistan and she said there was no space in society for people like her.  To me, Pakistan should be worried about this when the best and brightest feel disassociated and unwelcome.  At the bare minimum, they will be unable to shake their economic stagnation without engaging these sectors of society.

But regarding Egypt's decision to try 19 Americans in a case linked to foreign funding of NGOs, SCAF is obviously playing politics here.  It's easy to divert attention from an economy in the toilet when you're deflecting blame to foreign elements. It's also an easy way to maintain support of an otherwise antsy public--Egypt's under siege by the Americans/Israelis/whoever. Best to maintain unity.

I am torn about whether or not the United States should pull aid funding.  We'd be playing politics right back.  According to Gallup, Egyptians overwhelmingly don't even want the money, but the aid was never about what Egyptians want. It is more for pursuing United States priorities.

Egypt's terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week

Ignored in the noise in Western media surrounding Egypt's decision to prosecute 19 Americans in connection to foreign funding of non-governmental organizations is the rash of bank robberies and police station sackings across Egypt. Just Saturday, three police stations were attacked. An HSBC and armored bank vehicle were also robbed this week.

It is things like this about which average Egyptians are concerned. In an idea world, yes, foreigners aiming to build up civil society should be allowed to operate. But the lack of security, which evidently cannot even be guaranteed for the pillars of stability and security--the police force and financial industry, is a more immediate and tangible concern.

This was an incredibly bad week for Egypt, from the football clashes that killed over seventy to the kidnapping of two American women to the bombing of pipelines to Israel.  And don't forget Mubarak's ongoing trial.  Cairo is beating under the fourth day of clashes following the football incident.  Perhaps as time passes the dust will settle and events will return to the uneasy stalemate that ruled before Port Said.  Perhaps, however, the lack of security and a failed economy will push a restless--and powerful--Egypt forward.

What wanna-be jihadis do in their mother's kitchen

When I first learned that al-Qaeda's English-language Inspire magazine led with an article called "Make a Bomb in Your Mother's Kitchen," written by a 25 year old from North Carolina, my first instinct was to laugh. After all, one's life has probably hit rock-bottom when you're sitting in your mom's kitchen googling how to wreck havoc on the infidels.

Western intelligence agencies found the article in now-deceased Anwar al-Awlaki's magazine an easy target for somewhat sarcastic cyber attack. In June 2011, Britain's MI6 hacked into the website and replaced the bomb-making instructions with how to make Ellen DeGenere's best cupcakes in America. I'm sure those who tried downloading the instructions particularly appreciated the mojito cupcake recipe.

Months later, AQ's outreach to the English-speaking world is proving to be anything but funny. Both al-Awlaki and the 25 year old North Carolinian Samir Khan have been killed in drone strikes, but Inspire and other AQ-affiliated English publications are alarmingly successfully recruiting European and American lone wolves to their cause. Jose Pimentel was arrested for building a pipe bomb in his mother's house to target military and government sites New York City. Army Pfc. Naser Jason Abdo was charged with planning to bomb a restaurant filled with troops from nearby Fort Hood in Texas; authorities found the article in his backpack. Two German Muslim converts, Christian Emde and Robert Baum, were stopped in Dover, UK, with the article, among others. And just this week, four British citizens pled guilty to planning an attack on the London Stock Exchange using homemade explosives following Inspire's instructions.

The magazine remains online, with thousands of followers. Its popularity is just one in many signs of the dangers a fragmented AQ poses to the United States and her allies. In fact, in this week's spy chief briefing on global threats on the Hill, DNI chief James Clapper noted that while AQ's core may be weakened, its franchises and the homegrown violent extremists (HVEs, more commonly referred to as lone wolves) continue to be a threat.

"The movement will continue to be a dangerous transnational force, regardless of the status of core al-Qa'ida, its affiliates, and its allies. Terrorist groups and individuals sympathetic to the jihadist movement will have access to the recruits, financing, arms and explosives, and safe haves needed to execute operations."

HVEs and franchises may (thus far) be less lethal than pre-9/11 AQ Central, as they lack the capability to pull off another attack on the level of 9/11. But they are much more difficult to stop.

NYT: Can Egypt Avoid Pakistan's Fate?

At first, the comparison between Pakistan and Egypt made me cringe, but this piece by Michelle Dunne and Shuja Nawaz is worth a read. There are significant differences between the two countries, but the comparison nevertheless is apt.

"One year after the revolution that ousted President Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian military is closing down civil society organizations and trying to manipulate the constitution-writing process to serve its narrow interests. Meanwhile, in Pakistan, where the military has also held sway for more than half the country’s existence — for much of that time, with America’s blessing — a new civil-military crisis is brewing."

With regard to both countries, the United States had the tendency to look the other way as long as the military regimes were willing to help the United States fulfill its regional goals.

The regional changes brought on by the so-called Arab Spring and the vapid anti-Americanism present in Pakistan show the danger of such an approach. Perhaps in the short run the status quo suits United States interest, but the repression, corruption, and economic stagnation of both these countries made the situation unsustainable. It is/was only a matter of time before the simmering pot exploded. I believe the Obama administration is smart enough to realize this. Fingers crossed their better judgement is not subsumed for short-term or domestic political interests.

!أهلا

Welcome, friends old and new, to my blog. Here, I hope to draw attention to important stories and those that may fall under the radar but which have important implications. I aim to combine my academic background, international experience, and just about encyclopedic knowledge of international news to make your life easier.

My focus is on the Middle East and North Africa but I have been turning increasingly eastward. I am very interested in Pakistan, our erstwhile frenemy number one.

I aim to make this blog dynamic and a back and forth, so comments will always be welcome. If you're a jerk, though, I reserve the right to remove your rantings.

Here we go.

Y'alla.